Source: https://mochatrade.com/learn/glossary/cme-fedwatch

# CME FedWatch
URL: https://mochatrade.com/learn/glossary/cme-fedwatch
Last modified: 2026-10-17

CME FedWatch turns futures on the overnight rate into a probability for each outcome at every Fed meeting. It is [what the market priced before the decision](https://mochatrade.com/learn/start-here/how-to-read-us-market-news), and [the decision is judged against it](https://mochatrade.com/learn/us-market-structure/how-the-fed-moves-markets), so a move the market gave 95% odds [lands and nothing happens](https://mochatrade.com/blog/mocha-markets-weekly-019).

## Related terms

- FOMC: https://mochatrade.com/learn/glossary/fomc
- Fed funds rate: https://mochatrade.com/learn/glossary/fed-funds-rate
- 2-year Treasury yield: https://mochatrade.com/learn/glossary/2-year-treasury-yield
- FOMC minutes: https://mochatrade.com/learn/glossary/fomc-minutes
- Forward guidance (Fed): https://mochatrade.com/learn/glossary/forward-guidance
- Volatility / VIX: https://mochatrade.com/learn/glossary/volatility-vix