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1.7 US Earnings Explained: Reports, Guidance & Market Expectations
Earnings season's documents, a practical order for reading results, and why a beat can still fall.
About this lecture
How can a company report strong profit growth and still see its stock fall that night? Earnings reactions depend on more than the headline—they also reflect guidance and what investors already expected.
In this lecture, Pratham walks through the US earnings season, the documents companies publish, and a practical order for reading the results.
You'll learn about:
- The quarterly earnings calendar and where to find reporting dates
- Earnings releases, 8-Ks, earnings calls, 10-Qs and 10-Ks
- GAAP versus adjusted earnings
- Revenue, margins, earnings per share and free cash flow
- Comparing results with last year, analyst estimates and previous guidance
- Raised, maintained and cut guidance—and why the outlook matters
- Consensus estimates, whisper numbers and the options-implied move
- A before-and-after-release checklist, including the analyst Q&A
The goal is to look beyond “beat” or “miss” and understand how the results change expectations for the business.
Watch lecture 1.4 on the Fed for the earlier discussion of expectations, surprise and the future path.
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
Key takeaways
- A stock reacts to earnings against what investors already expected and to the guidance that comes with them, not to the headline profit figure alone.
- The documents are the earnings release and 8-K, the call, and the 10-Q or 10-K; GAAP and adjusted earnings are different numbers.
- Read revenue, margins, earnings per share and free cash flow against last year, analyst estimates and previous guidance; raised, maintained or cut guidance is what changes the outlook.
- Consensus estimates, whisper numbers and the options-implied move say what the market expects before the release; the analyst Q&A on the call often says more than the prepared remarks.