Inverted yield curve
An inverted yield curve is when short-term Treasuries yield more than long-term ones, usually the two-year above the ten-year. It means the market expects the Fed to cut later because growth will slow, and it has come before most US recessions, though the lag runs from months to years and the growth data decides the timing.
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- Yield curveThe yield curve is the line of Treasury yields from three months to thirty years, normally sloping up because longer…
- 10-year Treasury yieldThe ten-year Treasury yield is the benchmark long rate that mortgages, company debt and stock valuations are priced…
- 2-year Treasury yieldThe two-year Treasury yield is the bond market's bet on where the Fed will hold rates over the next two years, so it…
- Real yieldA real yield is a bond's return after inflation, read live from inflation-protected Treasuries, called TIPS. It is the…
- Dot plotThe dot plot is the chart of where each Fed official expects the policy rate to be over the next few years, one dot…
- BetaBeta measures how much a stock has moved relative to the market: 1.5 means it has historically moved 1.5% for each 1%…