CME FedWatch

CME FedWatch turns futures on the overnight rate into a probability for each outcome at every Fed meeting. It is what the market priced before the decision, and the decision is judged against it, so a move the market gave 95% odds lands and nothing happens.

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In MochaLearnSee how the Fed moves US markets in MochaLearn
  • FOMCThe FOMC is the Federal Open Market Committee, the twelve voters inside the Fed who set the policy rate at eight…
  • Fed funds rateThe fed funds rate is the target range for overnight lending between US banks, the one rate the Fed sets directly. It…
  • 2-year Treasury yieldThe two-year Treasury yield is the bond market's bet on where the Fed will hold rates over the next two years, so it…
  • FOMC minutesThe FOMC minutes are the written record of a Fed meeting, released three weeks after the decision at 11:30 PM IST…
  • Forward guidance (Fed)Forward guidance is the Fed telling the market roughly what it plans to do next, so rate moves arrive pre-priced. When…
  • Volatility / VIXVolatility is how much a price swings. The VIX is Cboe's index of how far the S&P 500 is expected to move over thirty…

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