10-year Treasury yield
The ten-year Treasury yield is the benchmark long rate that mortgages, company debt and stock valuations are priced off. The Fed does not set it; growth, inflation expectations and the term premium do. When it rises, long-dated growth sectors fall harder than banks, and in September 2026 seventeen of its eighteen basis points were real return, not inflation fear.
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- Treasury yieldA Treasury yield is the annual return on a US government bond at today's market price; when the price falls, the yield…
- Term premiumThe term premium is the extra yield investors demand to lend for ten years instead of rolling short bills, for the…
- 2-year Treasury yieldThe two-year Treasury yield is the bond market's bet on where the Fed will hold rates over the next two years, so it…
- Dot plotThe dot plot is the chart of where each Fed official expects the policy rate to be over the next few years, one dot…
- Yield curveThe yield curve is the line of Treasury yields from three months to thirty years, normally sloping up because longer…
- Growth vs value stocksGrowth vs value is the split between companies priced for profits far in the future, like most technology, and…