FOMC

The FOMC is the Federal Open Market Committee, the twelve voters inside the Fed who set the policy rate at eight scheduled meetings a year. The statement lands at 11:30 PM IST, 12:30 AM in winter, the chair speaks half an hour later, and the decision is read against the odds already priced in FedWatch. Only five of the twelve regional presidents vote in a year, which is why a speech from a voter outweighs one from a non-voter.

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In MochaLearnSee how the Fed moves US markets in MochaLearn
  • CME FedWatchCME FedWatch turns futures on the overnight rate into a probability for each outcome at every Fed meeting. It is what…
  • FOMC minutesThe FOMC minutes are the written record of a Fed meeting, released three weeks after the decision at 11:30 PM IST…
  • Dot plotThe dot plot is the chart of where each Fed official expects the policy rate to be over the next few years, one dot…
  • 2-year Treasury yieldThe two-year Treasury yield is the bond market's bet on where the Fed will hold rates over the next two years, so it…
  • Forward guidance (Fed)Forward guidance is the Fed telling the market roughly what it plans to do next, so rate moves arrive pre-priced. When…
  • Market correctionA correction is a fall of 10% to 20% from a recent high, a convention, not a rule. Most start on a rate repricing or a…

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